Free Transborder Trade Areas
THE THEORY OF TRANSBORDER, INTERPROVINCIAL FREE TRADE AREAS1
Summary
The theory of Free Trade Areas is quite well developed. In general
however the theory has been applied only to entire countries entering into
such agreements. There have been notable exceptions, e.g. the post WW-II
European Coal and Steel Community. The Canadian economist Robert Mundell,
in h s article on "Optimum Currency Areas", also raised the notion that
national boundaries are not necessarily coterminous with optimum trade
areas, suggesting that in large countries like the United States and the
Soviet Union economic efficiency might be increased by introducing regional
currencies. Combining the Mundel concept of multiple regions within one
nation enjoying considerable economic autonomy with the ECSC experience in
extending such autonomy across national boundaries, one can conceive of of
a Free Trade Zone limited to adjoining provinces of nations in which
accidents of history have resulted in borders dividing natural economic
regions. Not only would such unification benefit the participating
provinces, but the added efficiency would also benefit the
non-participating regions of the nations to which these provinces belong --
another example showing that the operations of a free economy are a
positive-sum game.
Certain natural economic regions have been artifically divided by
national frontiers as the result of such irrational happenings as wars,
folk migrations, and dynastic marriages. Economic pressures to reunite
such natural regions are enormous, though usually ignored by Economists and
negated by the concerns of politicians who do not recognize the essentially
positive source of such pressures, confusing them with disaffection and/or
attempts at financial shenanigans on the part of traders and businessmen.
The union, most commonly by conquest, of entire previously sovereign
nations into Common Markets, or Free Trade Areas, has until recently been
the only recognized method of rejoining such natural economic regions.
Examples include the unification of Germany under Prussia following the
Franco-German War; Bismark's earlier Zollverein initiative; and Garibaldi's
conquest of Italy under the banner of the Kingdom of Piedmont.
The European Iron and Steel Community Example
Following the Second World War, a historic breakthrough occurred
when Germany, Belgium, and France voluntarily permitted adjoining provinces
in the Ruhr/Saar natural economic zone to join a European Iron and Steel
Community without committing any of the three nations to economic fusion.
This rejoining of an artifically divided economic region was so successful
that it provided a shining example for the later European Common Market,
which at the end of a protracted process will, in 1992, result in the
effective fusion of the economies of its twelve member countries.
In recent years, the success of the EC has so impressed the world
that the example of permitting mere adjoining provinces, or, indeed,
limited sectors or industries, to undertake special relations which do not
involve entire nations has all but been forgotten. But in economic theory
there is no reason to insist on sovereign nations joining together where
otherwise politically or economically contraindicated, just to resolve the
probelms of certains provinces or product lines. Nor, on the other hand,
should it be necessary for adjoining provinces within a natural economic
region to forego the benefits of cooperation just because the rest of the
homeland or homelands is or are unready for such a major step.
Illustrative of the power of this new recognition of the
possibility of disaggregated economic policy, Belgium has just enacted
legislation to devolve control over economic policy, foreign trade, roads,
ports, and communications to its two language regions, with the central
government reserving control only over foreign affairs, defense, justice,
social security and monetary policy.
A not-dissimilar situation, though moving towards centralization
across national borders instead of decentralization within a single nation
of certain powers, is taking place in what was known before WW I as "Middle
Europe" -- essentially the old Austro-Hungarian Empire. Today this natural
economic region is divided among five sovereign nations: Austria, Italy,
Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Yugoslavia. This natural trade area has, since
the break up of the Austro-Hungarian Empire found great difficulty in
developing satisfactory trade relations with the new homelands into which
it was divided as a result of the Versailles Treaty.
Trieste, formerly the main port of Austria has lost most of its
shipping to Italian ports closer to the industrial regions of Genoa and
Rome. Styria, Carinthia, and Burgenland, formerly prosperous regions of
Austria now on the borders of Socialist Yugoslavia and Hungary, have been
losing population to areas adjacent to more prosperous Free Market
Switzerland and Germany. A new political movement called Alpe-Adria (from
the Alps to the Adriatic) has recently arisen, counting among its
membership the cross-border provinces of Burgenland, Carinthia, Styria, and
Upper Austria (all in Austria); Croatia and Slovenia (each republics of
Yugoslavia), and Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Trentino-Alto Adige and Veneto
(provinces of Italy). Associate members are Austria's Salzburg, Hungary's
two western regions of Gyor-Sopron and Vas, Italy's Lombardy, and the West
German state of Bavaria. Taking into account the troubled political
history of its Middle-Europe/Balkan past and the enormous socio-economic
differences of the nation states to which these member regions belong
today, it can be seen that the Alpe-Adria movement presents an even more
striking example of the economic forces at work trying to rationalize
production and trade within a natural economic region fractured by
illogical national boundaries than the California/Baja, Sonora/Arizona, and
Nuevo Leon/Texas examples given below.
While the forces at work on the eastern side may be primarily
symbolic -- an attempt to rejoin the rest of Europe, the London Economist,
in an analytic article in its December 26, 1987 issue, sees the objectives
of the western members of the movement as more practical: an attempt to
redress regional economic balance now being lost to more advantageously
placed provinces near the dynamic markets of West Germany and Italy.
A New Possibility for Interprovincial Economic Cooperation
A promising possibility of permitting adjoining provinces of
nations as yet unprepared to move towards a Free Trade Area or Common
Market involving entire nations can be found in the American Southwest,
where the States of Texas and Nueva Leon, Mexico; Chihuahua and Texas/New
Mexico; Arizona/Sonora; and California/Baja California have much more in
common from an economic perspective than the political, cultural, and
linguistic differences which separate them across a national border.
The problem is to find a way in which such a trans-border,
inter-provincial Free Trade area could be created. One major preoccupation
in the American Southwest is concern over illegal immigration.
Switzerland provides some hints as to how the problem might be
approached. Almost twenty-per cent of the Swiss workforce is constituted
of temporary immigrant labor. In the Swiss Federation, virtually all
immigration and citizenship questions are left to cantonal policy. It is
much more difficult for a foreigner to be accepted for residence in certain
cantons than in others. And only after a canton accepts one for
citizenship is Federation citizenship accorded. The United States has
taken the opposite approach.
But it would appear possible, by special act of Congress (and by
concurrent action by the Mexican Camara de Diputados) to enable the
specific states mentioned to undertake treaty negotiations to determine the
nature of the Free Trade Area desired. By ratification of the resulting
treaty it would be given status superceding the Co stitutions of both
countries. Thus those closest to and most interested in the economic and
social problems involved would be enabled to find solutions to them.
Sonora is one of the more economically advanced states of Mexico. With 2%
of the population and 20% of the national territory, Sonora produces two
and a half times the national share of GDP per capita.
There are few families on either side of the border without close
friends or family members on the other side. Were residence and state
citizenship questions left to the transborder states, members of the new
Free Trade Area, much of the illegal immigration problems of both countries
might readily be resolved.
Nor would it appear difficult for the US Immigration and
Naturalization Service to establish its border monitoring points on the
Utah/Colorado/Oklahoma borders to prevent those crossing the national
frontier from proceding past the limits of the states participating in the
treaty. Indeed, the job of the INS would be enormously lightened since
relatively few "indocumentados" have strong interest in traveling beyond
the borders of the natural economic region already described.
Potential Political Problems in Achieving a Regional Free Trade Area
This is not to say there would not be problems getting such
enabling legislation through either the American Congress or the Mexican
Camara de Diputados. Few politicians recognize the border problem as the
economic problem it is, preferring to see it as a political issue -- which
it largely is not. As with the "Norteno" problem the "Guachos" of the
Distrito Federal in Mexico perceive with regard to Sonorans, the distrust
of Ottawa over the separatist tendencies of Alberta and British Columbia
would prevent Canada from participating in such an economically logical
solution to the divided natural economic region of British
Columbia/Washington State or Alberta/Idaho/Montana. And the concern of
Washington politicians over unwanted entry of Mexicans into the American
Southwest (which from all logic should be a local issue) will present
problems in approving such legislation.
Similarly, Alpe-Adria members have been forced to be ultra-discreet
to avoid offending national capitols or giving the impression they seek the
restoration of the Habsburg Empire. A Polish party newspaper has attacked
"the myth of Mitteleuropa". And following the October 1987 meeting of
Alpe-Adria in Bled, the Belgrade magazine Duga published a critical article
entitled "The Charms of Yodelling Together". Apparently fearing a new
Germanic subjugation, a Serbian paper has recent y called, as an
alternative, for the creation of a new Balkan confederation (shades of the
Balkan wars of the 1800's). Nevertheless, Alpe-Adria appears to have
surmounted the problem, and the battle to win approval for such legislation
in Mexico, D.F. and Washington, D.C. does not appear to be impossible.
Looking at the current European attempt at rationalizing one of its
artificially divided natural regions, the London Economist reports, "Those
who dream of some new Central European confederation by the year 2000 are
sure to be disappointed. But if ever the post-1945 division of Europe
looks like coming to an end, Alpe-Adria is ready and waiting. And one
might add, "Notwithstanding the illogical borders imposed by roaming
medieval tribes and the accidents of military conquest, the pressure of
economic forces and the gradual evolution of economic theory might yet make
it possible for natural economic regions to be unified even across national
borders, as was done with the ECSC.
An Important Reason to Look Closely at Rejoining the Divided Southwest
Economic Region
Few who have been close to the scene believe that the Immigration
Reform and Control Act of 1986 has come close to solving the problem of
illegal immigration. Perhaps the real solution is to leave matters in the
hands of those closest to the scene. A cross-border, interstate Free Trade
area along the lines proposed would bring essential farm labor into the
United States and permit badly needed capital investment in Sonora,
Chihuahua, Nuevo Leon, and Baja California, improving manufacturing and
tourist facilities enormously and bringing benefits to state economies on
both sides of the border -- in turn benefitting the national economies of
the participating nations as did the ECSC in post-war Europe. Given time,
who knows, the beneficial results might yet bring Mexico to participate in
the greater North American Free Trade Area which the parliaments of the US
and Canada are presently considering.
1 Published in emended form in The Foreign Service Journal in 1986 with
copies sent to all Senators and Congressmen. The Journal edited the piece
to remove all references to the proposal that the Mexican and American
border states be empowered to negotiate an agreement suitable to their
needs and desires, instead extending the notion to include both entire
nations -- making it an argument in support of the North American Free
Trade Area (NAFTA), despite the author's arugment that most of Mexico was
not ready for inclusion in such a treaty -- a prescient anticipation of the
meltdown of the peso within a few months of the ratification of NAFTA.
|